You Play To Win The Game-NFL Week 3

Herm Edwards had a famous press conference where he said, “You play to win the game, Hello? You Play to Win the Game!” It is a legendary press conference but in todays fantasy football world I think so many get caught up in highlights and passing yards that they forget that the ultimate stat is wins.

I think if you were writing a job description for an NFL Quarterback the top 3 priorities would be:

  1. Win the Game
  2. Don’t Lose the Game (Turnovers)
  3. Lead the Offense to Points

Obviously there are a lot of factors that go into a team winning or losing a game and the best Quarterbacks aren’t always the biggest guys with the biggest arms. We know this because if it were then Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees wouldn’t be 3 of the best Quarterbacks of this century.

I had a lot of discussions around Quarterbacks over the weekend and it led me to compare every 1st round Quarterback drafted the last few years during their first 10 starts. Why 10 starts? Well, each of these Quarterbacks (Minus Josh Rosen) started at least 10 games. What did I look at? Turnovers, Winning, and Offensive points per game, below are the ten:

  1. 8–2 Record, 4 Interceptions, 27.5 PPG
  2. 7–3 Record, 6 Interceptions, 24.1 PPG
  3. 4–6 Record, 10 Interceptions, 22.7 PPG
  4. 4–6 Record, 9 Interceptions, 15.4 PPG
  5. 4–6 Record, 15 Interceptions, 22.5 PPG
  6. 3–6–1 Record, 5 Interceptions, 23.1 PPG
  7. 3–6–1 Record, 5 Interceptions, 22.2 PPG
  8. 2–8 Record, 8 Interceptions, 23.7 PPG
  9. 2–8 Record, 8 Interceptions, 20.3 PPG

So without knowing who the players are above I think it is clear to say that there is a large gap between player 1 and the rest of the field. Player 2 is clearly the second best, player 4 was by far the worst at leading his team to wins, and players 8 and 9 lost 20% more games than everyone else on the list. Now who just are these players?

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Tua Tagovailoa
  3. Baker Mayfield
  4. Josh Allen
  5. Sam Darnold
  6. Kyler Murray
  7. Joe Burrow
  8. Justin Herbert
  9. Daniel Jones

If you take Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow and combine their wins in each of their ten games they still have 2 less wins than Tua Tagovailoa. Each talking head talks about the “eye test” like they are some kind of NFL Quarterback scout, I won’t do that because I am not qualified in that area, what I will do is look at the important factors and debunk the myth that the Miami Dolphins are kicking their selves for not picking Justin Herbert. All we can do is compare what has been done and then guess for the future, now is Justin Herbert really the next Daniel Jones?

The good news for the Justin Herbert fans who think he is elite, he did end last year winning 4 straight games to end 2020 and then even won the opener in 2021. Then last week, everyone said he was awesome in a game where he led his team to 17 points and a 3 point loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Will Herbert be really good in the NFL? Maybe. Right now? No chance.

If we knew the future then I wouldn’t be writing this based on the past. Could Tua be often injured and be out of the league in a few years? Sure, that could happen, he could also continually improve, continually out preform his peers, and continually win. Could Justin Herbert go in to Kansas City and win, lead the Chargers to the Super Bowl, and become the next Aaron Rodgers? Sure, that could happen, he could also continue to put up great yardage stats, below average offensive points per game, and less points on the scoreboard than his opponent.

Week 3 Picks

Washington +7.5

New England -3

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati Under 43

Pittsburgh -3

Cleveland -1/Atlanta +8.5 Teaser

Survivor Pick: Denver

Last Week-3–2

YTD-7–3 (Just like Tua)

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Paul Conley

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